WHy Gold is looking better every day

Dear friends and readers,

My dear friend JP has offered a sensational piece which shows some insight on why you need all the gold you can get your hands on. A good friend said that Wal-MArt was running out of personal safes as Americans are hoarding the metal. I deplore the Chinese's thinking that they need to keep a couple of trillion fiat dollars to keep their economy going. BIG MISTAKE! So without any more gibberish on my part , please read on the dire predictions of our esteemed colleague JP. ( name witheld by request)

I Took the $7.7 trillion of bailouts. donations or guarantees and with the help of my trusted abacus, calculated that the US currency was backed with Gold sitting at Fort Knox and West Point (if there actually is any) but only if gold traded at $35,000 an ounce.
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At current prices concensus seems to be China's Gold hoard is worth approximately $3billion. In total reserves of $1.9 trillion at last official count. It would seem China is seriously - if not imprudently - underweight Gold.
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The only reason the USD isn't trading at new lows it is because China and Japan still continue to hold on to it. According to IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/802P816.pdf)
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Obama - with Geitner appointment - does not seem to understand that he needs to deal with the CDS (Credit Default Swap) ponzi scheme and exterminate it. An honest solution would be to allow companies to go into bancruptcy, payoff the CDS at face value and outlaw speculators and be made thankful they are getting out alive. Obama appointing the likes of Geithner is a signal of more of the same. President-elect Obama has choice:

a) adopt financial sanity, safety and soundness by deflating the remaining (and biggest) speculative bubble by letting free-market bancruptcy mechanism do its function.

b) elongate and deepen the economic stagnation (à la Japan method) wading pool for the next 5-10 years by continuing the Paulson / Geithner method of hiding true value of assets and nationalize the banking system and allow the CDS to persist waiting for the inevitable day of reckoning.
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US Code
§ 3910. Audit authority of Government Accountability Office
http://www2.law.cornell.edu/uscode/12/usc_sec_12_00003910----000-.html

is forbidden from:

(3) Audits of the Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve banks may not include—

(A) transactions for, or with, a foreign central bank, government of a foreign country, or nonprivate international financing organization;

(B) deliberations, decisions, or actions on monetary policy matters, including discount window operations, reserves of member banks, securities credit, interest on deposits, or open market operations;

(C) transactions made under the direction of the Federal Open Market Committee; or

(D) a part of a discussion or communication among or between members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and officers and employees of the Federal Reserve System related to subparagraphs (A) through (C) of this paragraph.

JP

I bought Physical gold today

I keep reading all these articles about governments printing billions of fiat currencies in the hope of preventing a depression. $700BB, Tarp, $600BB China, ECD , France, Britain. The list includes all the usual lemmings. I believe that all this printing will create a horrible inflation spiral in 2009. It's simply because governments are reading terrible accounts of previous economic cycles.
Just as doctors killed many more patients a hundred years ago because of lack of good diagnostic equipment, today's economic advisers are giving the press and government officials, a terrible diagnosis of what is ailing global economies and subsequent terrible economic stimulus.

FIRST of all STOP calling it ALARMING, AILING, DIRE!

We are simply deleveraging investment banks and hedge fund madness. THAT's a good thing!
Printing money and giving it right back to these people. THAT's a bad thing!

DE LEVERAGING CONTINUES
Banks balance sheets have to clean up and because they can't leverage 30:1 , it's pretty normal that their ROE will fall by an order of magnitude. Citicorp loses $100BB YTD in market cap. That's normal. They grew by dumb acquisitions, bad management and bad oversight from a purely incompetent Board of directors. Let the chips fall... Citicorp fires 53,000 employees and the stock still goes down. Poor Pandit, he has one heck of a mess on his hands. Stock going to 5 and hopefully no lower...
Goldman Sachs, now a federally regulated bank cuts 10% STAFF and bonuses to guys who racked in over $500MM a year ago in bonus...

Printing Money is NOT a long term solution
Printing money will not convince baby boomers to either save, invest or spend. So why are governments hell bent on repeating the mistakes of Germany of the late 1920s?
If you read history, the Germans had to pay exorbitant war reparations bills after they lsot WWI and after 10 years of crippling payments they just got fed up doing it for real so they started printing money. By 1933, you needed a barrel full of Deutsche marks to buy a loaf of bread. You know what happened next.


I bought my first ten ounces of a planned 400 ounces buy as a goal today. The local dealer was out of 10oz bars so I had to pay more for 1 ounce coins. For $60, the stuff gets delivered to the house. Don't get any ideas. Stuff is going straight to my bank safety deposit box. ( That gives me an idea... if banks are not to be trusted, should a non deposit business be started to offer vault services?) My local gold Dealer, http://www.kitco.com , says that since gold fell $300 , his business had the best month EVER in 20 years! It seems smart people have been converting their USD into bullion? They are not leasing or buying into pooled funds. Leasing gold from institutions that will never deliver is not wise. Pooled funds can always have a run and default so your are at risk. The only safe way is to hold the metal in YOUR hands. SO THEY ARE TAKING PHYSICAL DELIVERY.
With all the mining companies hard pressed to get their 2009 financing in place, I can safely say the coast is clear to 2010.
The recent pullback in gold is a tremendous buying opportunity. Remember I told you this less than a month ago. Hedge funds redeem their foreign holdings BACK to USD. That explains the drop in the British Pound, the Euro and countless currencies. The USD is a currency of last resort. Not much longer folks!

Even though, I also predicted a bad 2009 for the Euro, my call is for selling that gold at a significant profit in late 2009-2010 which will allow for nice purchase of real estate in EUROPE in 2011.

Stay tuned

DCW









Green tech is dying yet again after a two year sucker's bet.

Not Convincing, nor hopeful, dreary at best!

It must be my neurotic tendencies that seem to always look for the under dog in the face of overwhelming odds.

With Rabid Democrats jockeying for position in Washington, getting their kids in the best schools, where will Michelle decide to send her daughters, the new FIRST dog etc. How trivial, how mundane, how scary!

Oil at $58... shouldn't we be saying: "Finally relief?"
PACs are still intact. I haven't seen Washington office space prices fall. I would suggest that for 22 Republicans that needed to find other employment, 25 Democrats have already found a spot.
So this is going to be same old, same old, or is it going to be worse?
DJIA is telling you worse: Why?
Simple: Toxic investments are still out there contaminating a shrinking pool of clean capital.
Current and future Government solution: Keep pumping new money in a tank of rapidly growing E-coli infested water and telling banks, corporations and consumers to drink from.
"DRINK UP DRINK UP" says the government!
Right, the banks are asking for clean water but refuse to lend it out.
Corporations are drawing down the credit lines and using up the clean water, the banks are desperately trying to hold on to. Treasury reacts by offering to invest clean money into bank capital but does little to fix anything as the toxic waste is deep inside the banks' books.
Consumers have no access to clean water and are trying to have the government sponge up their swamp upside down mortgage money...
Government has to stop trying to fix everything. It's not its job. If anything it has to reassure the people that the toxic stuff is segregated and keep putting it back in our taps!
OK enough with the imagery!

ENEMY NUMBER ONE
CDS, CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS , are the number one enemy of all. I, for the life of me, cannot understand why they are not made illegal like crack cocaine. The right to buy a death warrant on a corporation should be rendered illegal and anybody owning them or issuing them past a set date is liable for prosecution, jail terms and destitution... Explain to me why American taxpayers need to shore up AIG? IS that really doing much... DJIA will go to 5K on its own, the quicker the better...

ENEMY NUMBER TWO
PEOPLE WHO DO NOT FOLLOW THE RULE OF LAW: Nobody in Washington respects the laws. You can't get half the members of the administration to uphold the laws of the constitution they were sworn to uphold. Treasury doesn't answer the press which implies taxation without representation. Justice set a partisan agenda. Covert operations of dubious merit get secrecy seals. PACS will fund almost anything in 2009 , unchecked and undeterred


ENEMY NUMBER THREE
USING TAX MONEY TO KEEP DEAD COMPANIES ON ALF (Artifical Life Support): I listened to CNBC yesterday morning. The anchors were all saying that they needed their big SUVs to get their kids to school. They were all too happy to drive their gas guzzlers and lamenting that nobody wanted to buy a small car made by GM. Conveniently forgot to mention that Mercedes Smart car is on triple shift production. The ego of financiers are the worst enemy of taxpayers.
Meantime Corrupt Washington will write even dumber checks that will end up 30% inflation next year.

THE REMEDIES
Come on guys, have some cojones!

PICK THE LOSERS NOW! ANNOUNCE THE LOSERS EVEN SOONER!

STICK TO A GAME PLAN, KILL OFF THE BAD WEEDS

A ray of hope Paulson said something today tht made sense ( bet you he repudiates it tomorrow)

http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081112.wpaulson1112/GIStory/

PREPARE A POOL OF CLEAN WATER


PROVE TO THE PEOPLE that in 2009, they will be richer, that their currency will be worth something and EVEN if their houses are worth less, they will feel secure and that they will not have to hear partisan fear rhetoric at every turn. 8 years of fear mongering is enough!

Maybe in 2009 we can go for a nice swim with some friendly sharks!

DCW